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1.
Actas Esp Psiquiatr ; 51(2): 56-64, 2023 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2324769

RESUMEN

The lockdown during the first wave of COV- ID-19 in Spain has been related to higher levels of anxiety in the general population. However, the emotional impact on Spanish caregivers of individuals with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD) has not been studied so far.


Asunto(s)
Trastorno del Espectro Autista , COVID-19 , Síndrome de Down , Síndrome de Williams , Humanos , Síndrome de Williams/psicología , Trastorno del Espectro Autista/psicología , Cuidadores/psicología , COVID-19/psicología , España/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Ansiedad/epidemiología
2.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 8177, 2023 05 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2326305

RESUMEN

Individuals with neurodevelopmental conditions (NDCs) have been reported to experience increased levels of anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic. In our study, we document how individuals with Down Syndrome (DS; N = 557; Mage = 16.52; 233 female) and Williams syndrome (WS, N = 247; Mage = 18.43; 113 female) experienced the first wave (April 2020-May 2020) of the COVID-19 pandemic across the world. Using multilevel linear mixed regressions, we studied (a) parental reported anxiety of individuals with DS and WS, (b) these individuals' specific concerns, and (c) their use and efficacy of emotion regulation (ER) strategies during the first wave of COVID-19. Predictors of anxiety, such as the age of the individual with NDC, type of condition, and time, were investigated. Individuals with WS experienced higher levels of anxiety compared to those with DS and the older the individuals with NDC were the more anxiety they experienced. In terms of concerns, group effects indicated that individuals with WS scored higher for most of the concerns. There were no gender differences in concerns, yet most of the concerns increased with age except for concerns about loss of routine, boredom, loss of institutional support and family conflict. Finally, significant group effects were found and indicated a more frequent use of a variety of adaptive and maladaptive ER strategies in individuals with WS. We did not identify group differences in the efficacy of ER strategies. Our results indicate that individuals with WS are likely to exhibit higher levels of anxiety, but also higher levels of concerns depending on their age. Similarly, individuals with WS use a variety of ER strategies more frequently but these strategies are not necessarily more efficient for them. We discuss the impact of these findings in relation to anxiety identification and support across individuals with NDCs.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Síndrome de Down , Regulación Emocional , Síndrome de Williams , Humanos , Femenino , Síndrome de Down/complicaciones , Síndrome de Down/psicología , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiología , Ansiedad/epidemiología
4.
Pensar Prát. (Online) ; 25Fev. 2022.
Artículo en Portugués | WHO COVID, LILACS (Américas) | ID: covidwho-2294060

RESUMEN

Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo analisar o distanciamento social, o nível de atividade física e a alimentação de pessoas com síndrome de Down durante a pandemia de COVID-19. Participaram do estudo 24 pessoas por meio de um formulário eletrônico com 45 questões fechadas. Entre os resultados encontrados verificou-se que após uma média de 69,87 dias do início das medidas de afastamento e redução de convívio para controle da pandemia houve diminuição do nível de atividade física e da qualidade da alimentação, bem como o aumento do índice de massa corporal. Verificou-se que as pessoas com síndrome de Down desenvolveram, em distanciamento social, características que po-dem agravar um possível quadro de COVID-19 e a maioria tem contato com pessoas que não estão reduzindo a interação com outras pessoas. Concluiu-se que ações voltadas para as pessoas com síndrome de Down são urgentes para que essas não fiquem ainda mais expostas às consequências da pandemia (AU0.


This research aims to analyze the social distancing, the level of physical activity and the diet of people with Down syndrome, during the COVID-19 pandemic. 24 people participated in this study by means of an electronic form with 45 closed questions. Among the results found, it was found that after an average of 69.87 days of distancing, there was a decrease in the level of physical activity and quality of food, as well as an increase in the body mass index. It was found that people with Down syndrome have characteristics that can aggravate a possible COVID-19 condition and most have contact with people who are not in distancing. It was concluded that actions are urgently needed so that people with Down syndrome are not even more exposed in this pandemic moment (AU).


Esta investigación tiene como objetivo analizar el distancia-miento social, el nivel de actividad física y la dieta de las personas con síndrome de Down durante la pandemia de COVID-19. 24 personas par-ticiparon en este estudio a través de un formulario electrónico con 45 preguntas cerradas. Entre los resultados encontrados, se encontró que luego de un promedio de 69,87 días de distanciamiento social se presen-tó una disminución en el nivel de actividad física y la calidad de la alimen-tación, así como un aumento en el índice de masa corporal. Se encon-tró que las personas con síndrome de Down tienen características que pueden agravar una posible condición de COVID-19 y la mayoría tiene contacto con personas que no están distanciamiento social. Se concluyó que se necesitan acciones urgentes para que las personas con Síndrome de Down no estén aún más expuestos en este momento de pandemia (AU).


Asunto(s)
Humanos , Ejercicio Físico , Síndrome de Down , Distanciamiento Físico , COVID-19 , Índice de Masa Corporal , Alimentos
6.
Cell Rep Med ; 1(2): 100019, 2020 05 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2258429

RESUMEN

People with Down syndrome show signs of chronic immune dysregulation, including a higher prevalence of autoimmune disorders, increased rates of hospitalization during respiratory viral infections, and higher mortality rates from pneumonia and sepsis. At the molecular and cellular levels, they show markers of chronic autoinflammation, including interferon hyperactivity, elevated levels of many inflammatory cytokines and chemokines, and changes in diverse immune cell types reminiscent of inflammatory conditions observed in the general population. However, the impact of this immune dysregulation in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and CoV disease of 2019 (COVID-19) remains unknown. This Perspective outlines why individuals with Down syndrome should be considered an at-risk population for severe COVID-19. Specifically, the immune dysregulation caused by trisomy 21 may result in an exacerbated cytokine release syndrome relative to that observed in the euploid population, thus justifying additional monitoring and specialized care for this vulnerable population.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/inmunología , Síndrome de Liberación de Citoquinas/inmunología , Síndrome de Down/inmunología , Infecciones Bacterianas/inmunología , Coinfección , Citocinas/inmunología , Citocinas/metabolismo , Humanos , Inflamación , Interferones/inmunología , Interferones/metabolismo , SARS-CoV-2
8.
Nature ; 615(7951): 305-314, 2023 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2270582

RESUMEN

Down's syndrome (DS) presents with a constellation of cardiac, neurocognitive and growth impairments. Individuals with DS are also prone to severe infections and autoimmunity including thyroiditis, type 1 diabetes, coeliac disease and alopecia areata1,2. Here, to investigate the mechanisms underlying autoimmune susceptibility, we mapped the soluble and cellular immune landscape of individuals with DS. We found a persistent elevation of up to 22 cytokines at steady state (at levels often exceeding those in patients with acute infection) and detected basal cellular activation: chronic IL-6 signalling in CD4 T cells and a high proportion of plasmablasts and CD11c+TbethighCD21low B cells (Tbet is also known as TBX21). This subset is known to be autoimmune-prone and displayed even greater autoreactive features in DS including receptors with fewer non-reference nucleotides and higher IGHV4-34 utilization. In vitro, incubation of naive B cells in the plasma of individuals with DS or with IL-6-activated T cells resulted in increased plasmablast differentiation compared with control plasma or unstimulated T cells, respectively. Finally, we detected 365 auto-antibodies in the plasma of individuals with DS, which targeted the gastrointestinal tract, the pancreas, the thyroid, the central nervous system, and the immune system itself. Together, these data point to an autoimmunity-prone state in DS, in which a steady-state cytokinopathy, hyperactivated CD4 T cells and ongoing B cell activation all contribute to a breach in immune tolerance. Our findings also open therapeutic paths, as we demonstrate that T cell activation is resolved not only with broad immunosuppressants such as Jak inhibitors, but also with the more tailored approach of IL-6 inhibition.


Asunto(s)
Autoinmunidad , Linfocitos T CD4-Positivos , Citocinas , Síndrome de Down , Humanos , Linfocitos T CD4-Positivos/citología , Linfocitos T CD4-Positivos/inmunología , Citocinas/análisis , Citocinas/inmunología , Síndrome de Down/inmunología , Síndrome de Down/fisiopatología , Interleucina-6/inmunología , Linfocitos B/citología , Linfocitos B/inmunología , Linfocitos B/metabolismo , Susceptibilidad a Enfermedades , Receptores de Complemento 3d , Autoanticuerpos/inmunología
9.
PLoS Med ; 20(2): e1004134, 2023 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2235368

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses have shown that preexisting mental disorders may increase serious Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, especially mortality. However, most studies were conducted during the first months of the pandemic, were inconclusive for several categories of mental disorders, and not fully controlled for potential confounders. Our study objectives were to assess independent associations between various categories of mental disorders and COVID-19-related mortality in a nationwide sample of COVID-19 inpatients discharged over 18 months and the potential role of salvage therapy triage to explain these associations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed a nationwide retrospective cohort of all adult inpatients discharged with symptomatic COVID-19 between February 24, 2020 and August 28, 2021 in mainland France. The primary exposure was preexisting mental disorders assessed from all discharge information recorded over the last 9 years (dementia, depression, anxiety disorders, schizophrenia, alcohol use disorders, opioid use disorders, Down syndrome, other learning disabilities, and other disorder requiring psychiatric ward admission). The main outcomes were all-cause mortality and access to salvage therapy (intensive-care unit admission or life-saving respiratory support) assessed at 120 days after recorded COVID-19 diagnosis at hospital. Independent associations were analysed in multivariate logistic models. Of 465,750 inpatients with symptomatic COVID-19, 153,870 (33.0%) were recorded with a history of mental disorders. Almost all categories of mental disorders were independently associated with higher mortality risks (except opioid use disorders) and lower salvage therapy rates (except opioid use disorders and Down syndrome). After taking into account the mortality risk predicted at baseline from patient vulnerability (including older age and severe somatic comorbidities), excess mortality risks due to caseload surges in hospitals were +5.0% (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.7 to 5.2) in patients without mental disorders (for a predicted risk of 13.3% [95% CI, 13.2 to 13.4] at baseline) and significantly higher in patients with mental disorders (+9.3% [95% CI, 8.9 to 9.8] for a predicted risk of 21.2% [95% CI, 21.0 to 21.4] at baseline). In contrast, salvage therapy rates during caseload surges in hospitals were significantly higher than expected in patients without mental disorders (+4.2% [95% CI, 3.8 to 4.5]) and lower in patients with mental disorders (-4.1% [95% CI, -4.4; -3.7]) for predicted rates similar at baseline (18.8% [95% CI, 18.7-18.9] and 18.0% [95% CI, 17.9-18.2], respectively). The main limitations of our study point to the assessment of COVID-19-related mortality at 120 days and potential coding bias of medical information recorded in hospital claims data, although the main study findings were consistently reproduced in multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 patients with mental disorders had lower odds of accessing salvage therapy, suggesting that life-saving measures at French hospitals were disproportionately denied to patients with mental disorders in this exceptional context.


Asunto(s)
Alcoholismo , COVID-19 , Síndrome de Down , Trastornos Mentales , Adulto , Humanos , COVID-19/complicaciones , Estudios de Cohortes , Prueba de COVID-19 , Estudios Retrospectivos , Alcoholismo/complicaciones , Trastornos Mentales/diagnóstico
10.
J Pediatr ; 255: 58-64.e6, 2023 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2210925

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To address gaps in routine recommended care for children with Down syndrome, through quality improvement during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective chart review of patients with Down syndrome was conducted. Records of visits to the Massachusetts General Hospital Down Syndrome Program were assessed for adherence to 5 components of the 2011 American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) Clinical Report, "Health Supervision for Children with Down Syndrome." The impact of 2 major changes was analyzed using statistical process control charts: a planned intervention of integrations to the electronic health record for routine health maintenance with age-based logic based on a diagnosis of Down syndrome, created and implemented in July 2020; and a natural disruption in care due to the COVID-19 pandemic, starting in March 2020. RESULTS: From December 2018 to March 2022, 433 patients with Down syndrome had 940 visits. During the COVID-19 pandemic, adherence to the audiology component decreased (from 58% to 45%, P < .001); composite adherence decreased but later improved. Ophthalmology evaluation remained stable. Improvement in adherence to 3 components (thyroid-stimulating hormone, hemoglobin, sleep study ever) in July 2020 coincided with electronic health record integrations. Total adherence to the 5 AAP guideline components was greater for follow-up visits compared with new patient visits (69% and 61%, respectively; P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic influenced adherence to components of the AAP Health supervision for children with Down syndrome, but improvements in adherence coincided with implementation of our intervention and reopening after the COVID-19 pandemic.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Síndrome de Down , Niño , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Pandemias , Registros Electrónicos de Salud , Síndrome de Down/epidemiología , Síndrome de Down/terapia , Síndrome de Down/diagnóstico , Estudios Retrospectivos , Adhesión a Directriz
11.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(1): 26-35, 2023 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2198449

RESUMEN

Down syndrome is the most common human chromosomal disorder. Whether Down syndrome is a risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes in pediatric patients remains unclear, especially in low-to-middle income countries. We gathered data on patients <18 years of age with SARS-CoV-2 infection from a national registry in Brazil to assess the risk for severe outcomes among patients with Down syndrome. We included data from 14,684 hospitalized patients, 261 of whom had Down syndrome. After adjustments for sociodemographic and medical factors, patients with Down syndrome had 1.8 times higher odds of dying from COVID-19 (odds ratio 1.82, 95% CI 1.22-2.68) and 27% longer recovery times (hazard ratio 0.73, 95% CI 0.61-0.86) than patients without Down syndrome. We found Down syndrome was associated with increased risk for severe illness and death among COVID-19 patients. Guidelines for managing COVID-19 among pediatric patients with Down syndrome could improve outcomes for this population.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Síndrome de Down , Humanos , Niño , COVID-19/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Síndrome de Down/complicaciones , Síndrome de Down/epidemiología , Brasil/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo
12.
Indian J Med Microbiol ; 41: 1-4, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2165399

RESUMEN

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is the most common cause of congenital viral infections. Women seropositive for CMV prior to pregnancy can develop a non-primary CMV infection. Here, we present a case of first trimester pregnancy loss during active SARS-CoV-2 infection. There was no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in placenta and fetal tissue, but there was presence of congenital cytomegalovirus infection by nested PCR. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report demonstrating association of early congenital CMV infection due to reactivation and fetal demise in a SARS-CoV-2 positive woman with fetal trisomy 21.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Infecciones por Citomegalovirus , Síndrome de Down , Embarazo , Femenino , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Citomegalovirus , Primer Trimestre del Embarazo , ARN Viral , Feto , Muerte Fetal
15.
J Glob Health ; 12: 05044, 2022 Sep 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2040350

RESUMEN

Background: There is considerable policy, clinical and public interest about whether children should be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 and, if so, which children should be prioritised (particularly if vaccine resources are limited). To inform such deliberations, we sought to identify children and young people at highest risk of hospitalization from COVID-19. Methods: We used the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) platform to undertake a national incident cohort analysis to investigate the risk of hospitalization among 5-17 years old living in Scotland in risk groups defined by the living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID). A Cox proportional hazard model was used to derive hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between risk groups and COVID-19 hospital admission. Adjustments were made for age, sex, socioeconomic status, co-morbidity, and prior hospitalization. Results: Between March 1, 2020 and November 22, 2021, there were 146 183 (19.4% of all 752 867 children in Scotland) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections among 5-17 years old. Of those with confirmed infection, 973 (0.7%) were admitted to hospital with COVID-19. The rate of COVID-19 hospitalization was higher in those within each QCOVID risk group compared to those without the condition. Similar results were found in age stratified analyses (5-11 and 12-17 years old). Risk groups associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 hospital admission, included (adjusted HR, 95% CIs): sickle cell disease 14.35 (8.48-24.28), chronic kidney disease 11.34 (4.61-27.87), blood cancer 6.32 (3.24-12.35), rare pulmonary diseases 5.04 (2.58-9.86), type 2 diabetes 3.04 (1.34-6.92), epilepsy 2.54 (1.69-3.81), type 1 diabetes 2.48 (1.47-4.16), Down syndrome 2.45 (0.96-6.25), cerebral palsy 2.37 (1.26-4.47), severe mental illness 1.43 (0.63-3.24), fracture 1.41 (1.02-1.95), congenital heart disease 1.35 (0.82-2.23), asthma 1.28 (1.06-1.55), and learning disability (excluding Down syndrome) 1.08 (0.82-1.42), when compared to those without these conditions. Although our Cox models were adjusted for a number of potential confounders, residual confounding remains a possibility. Conclusions: In this national study, we observed an increased risk of COVID-19 hospital admissions among school-aged children with specific underlying long-term health conditions compared with children without these conditions.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Síndrome de Down , Adolescente , COVID-19/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Estudios de Cohortes , Hospitalización , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Escocia/epidemiología
16.
J Infect Dis ; 226(5): 757-765, 2022 09 13.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2029040

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Down syndrome (DS) is associated with an increased risk of infections attributed to immune defects. Whether individuals with DS are at an increased risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains unclear. METHODS: In a matched cohort study, we evaluated the risk of COVID-19 infection and severe COVID-19 disease in individuals with DS and their matched counterparts in a pre-COVID-19 vaccination period at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Multivariable Cox proportion hazard regression was used to investigate associations between DS and risk of COVID-19 infection and severe COVID-19 disease. RESULTS: Our cohort included 2541 individuals with DS and 10 164 without DS matched on age, sex, and race/ethnicity (51.6% female, 53.3% Hispanic, median age 25 years [interquartile range, 14-38]). Although the rate of COVID-19 infection in individuals with DS was 32% lower than their matched counterparts (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], .56-.83), the rate of severe COVID-19 disease was 6-fold higher (aHR, 6.14; 95% CI, 1.87-20.16). CONCLUSIONS: Although the risk of COVID-19 infection is lower, the risk of severe disease is higher in individuals with DS compared with their matched counterparts. Better infection monitoring, early treatment, and promotion of vaccine for COVID-19 are warranted for DS populations.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Prestación Integrada de Atención de Salud , Síndrome de Down , Adulto , COVID-19/epidemiología , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Estudios de Cohortes , Síndrome de Down/complicaciones , Síndrome de Down/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino
17.
J Infect Dis ; 226(4): 673-677, 2022 09 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2017956

RESUMEN

The risk of a severe course of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in adults with Down syndrome is increased, resulting in an up to 10-fold increase in mortality, in particular in those >40 years of age. After primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, the higher risks remain. In this prospective observational cohort study, SARS-CoV-2 spike S1-specific antibody responses after routine SARS-CoV-2 vaccination (BNT162b2, messenger RNA [mRNA]-1273, or ChAdOx1) in adults with Down syndrome and healthy controls were compared. Adults with Down syndrome showed lower antibody concentrations after 2 mRNA vaccinations or after 2 ChAdOx1 vaccinations. After 2 mRNA vaccinations, lower antibody concentrations were seen with increasing age. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT05145348.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Síndrome de Down , Adulto , Anticuerpos Antivirales , Formación de Anticuerpos , Vacuna BNT162 , COVID-19/prevención & control , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Humanos , Estudios Prospectivos , ARN Mensajero , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacunación
18.
J Glob Health ; 12: 05035, 2022 Aug 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1988412

RESUMEN

Background: People with Down syndrome (DS) are one of the highest risk groups for mortality associated with COVID-19, but outcomes may differ across countries due to different co-morbidity profiles, exposures, and societal practices, which could have implications for disease management. This study is designed to identify differences in clinical presentation, severity, and treatment of COVID-19 between India and several high-income countries (HICs). Methods: We used data from an international survey to examine the differences in disease manifestation and management for COVID-19 patients with DS from India vs HIC. De-identified survey data collected from April 2020 to August 2021 were analysed. Results: COVID-19 patients with DS from India were on average nine years younger than those from HICs. Comorbidities associated with a higher risk for severe COVID-19 were more frequent among the patients from India than from HICs. Hospitalizations were more frequent among patients from India as were COVID-19-related medical complications. Treatment strategies differed between India and HICs, with more frequent use of antibiotics in India. The average severity score of 3.31 was recorded for Indian DS in contrast to 2.3 for European and 2.04 for US cases. Conclusions: Presentation and outcomes of COVID-19 among individuals with DS were more severe for patients from India than for those from HIC. Global efforts should especially target vaccination campaigns and other risk-reducing interventions for individuals with DS from low-income countries.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Síndrome de Down , COVID-19/terapia , Países Desarrollados , Síndrome de Down/epidemiología , Síndrome de Down/terapia , Humanos , Renta , India/epidemiología
19.
medrxiv; 2022.
Preprint en Inglés | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2022.08.13.22278733

RESUMEN

To (a) derive and validate risk prediction algorithms (QCovid4) to estimate risk of COVID-19 mortality and hospitalisation in UK adults with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test during the Omicron pandemic wave and (b) evaluate performance with earlier versions of algorithms developed in previous pandemic waves and the high-risk cohort identified by NHS Digital in England. Design Population-based cohort study using the QResearch database linked to national data on COVID-19 vaccination, high risk patients prioritised for COVID-19 therapeutics, SARS-CoV-2 results, hospitalisation, cancer registry, systemic anticancer treatment, radiotherapy and the national death registry. Settings and study period 1.3 million adults in the derivation cohort and 0.15 million adults in the validation cohort aged 18-100 years with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test between 11th December 2021 and 31st March 2022 with follow up to 30th June 2022. Main outcome measures Our primary outcome was COVID-19 death. The secondary outcome of interest was COVID-19 hospital admission. Models fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance evaluated in a separate validation cohort. Results Of 1,297,984 people with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test in the derivation cohort, 18,756 (1.45%) had a COVID-19 related hospital admission and 3,878 (0.3%) had a COVID-19 death during follow-up. Of the 145,404 people in the validation cohort, there were 2,124 (1.46%) COVID-19 admissions and 461 (0.3%) COVID-19 deaths. The COVID-19 mortality rate in men increased with age and deprivation. In the QCovid4 model in men hazard ratios were highest for those with the following conditions- kidney transplant (6.1-fold increase), Downs syndrome (4.9-fold); radiotherapy (3.1-fold); type 1 diabetes (3.4-fold), chemotherapy grade A (3.8-fold), grade B (5.8-fold), grade C (10.9-fold), solid organ transplant ever (2.4-fold), dementia (1.62-fold), Parkinsons disease (2.2-fold), liver cirrhosis (2.5-fold). Other conditions associated with increased COVID-19 mortality included learning disability, chronic kidney disease (stages 4 and 5), blood cancer, respiratory cancer, immunosuppressants, oral steroids, COPD, coronary heart disease, stroke, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, thromboembolism, rheumatoid or SLE, schizophrenia or bipolar disease sickle cell or HIV or SCID, type 2 diabetes. Results were similar in the model in women. COVID-19 mortality risk was lower among those who had received COVID-19 vaccination compared with unvaccinated individuals with evidence of a dose response relationship. The reduced mortality rates associated with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection were similar in men (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.51 (95% CI 0.40, 0.64)) and women (adjusted HR 0.55 (95%CI 0.45, 0.67)). The QCOVID4 algorithm explained 76.6% (95%CI 74.4 to 78.8) of the variation in time to COVID-19 death (R2) in women. The D statistic was 3.70 (95%CI 3.48 to 3.93) and the Harrells C statistic was 0.965 (95%CI 0.951 to 0.978). The corresponding results for COVID-19 death in men were similar with R2 76.0% (95% 73.9 to 78.2); D statistic 3.65 (95%CI 3.43 to 3.86) and C statistic of 0.970 (95%CI 0.962 to 0.979). QCOVID4 discrimination for mortality was slightly higher than that for QCOVID1 and QCOVID2, but calibration was much improved. Conclusion The QCovid4 risk algorithm modelled from data during the UK Omicron wave now includes vaccination dose and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and predicts COVID-19 mortality among people with a positive test. It has excellent performance and could be used for targeting COVID-19 vaccination and therapeutics. Although large disparities in risks of severe COVID-19 outcomes among ethnic minority groups were observed during the early waves of the pandemic, these are much reduced now with no increased risk of mortality by ethnic group.


Asunto(s)
Accidente Cerebrovascular , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Demencia , Tromboembolia , Lupus Eritematoso Sistémico , Anemia de Células Falciformes , Diabetes Mellitus , Enfermedad Coronaria , Síndrome de Down , Neoplasias , Enfermedad de Parkinson , Discapacidades para el Aprendizaje , Muerte , COVID-19 , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica , Cirrosis Hepática , Artritis Reumatoide , Fibrilación Atrial
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